First triad warning of the season from npower 28 November 2014

npower has issued its first winter Triad warning in a season where energy demand peaks have become increasingly hard to predict.

Wayne Mitchell, head of industrial and commercial at npower, says factors such as mild weather and improved energy efficiency have led to a flattening of demand and, consequently, increasingly slim margins, while policies such as the National Grid's demand side balancing reserve (DSBR) contribute to complexity.

Triads, the top three half-hour peaks of national energy demand from November to February, are applied retrospectively by the National Grid.

With businesses at risk of spending upwards of £34,000 per megawatt of electricity during a Triad – significantly higher than the average winter price – missing a warning could cost some businesses millions of pounds in energy spend.

"Throughout the season our Triad team issues alerts to help businesses avoid costs, for example advising manufacturers to reduce output over a peak, or to switch to using onsite generation," states Mitchell.

"The increasing unpredictability of Triads creates a significant financial risk for large energy users across the UK," he continues.

"Our alerts are forecast up to two weeks in advance and we issue warnings 24 hours before a Triad occurs to ensure that businesses can decide how best to manage their energy consumption."

Historically, Triads have fallen when industrial energy demand coincides with the domestic evening peak, making it possible to predict when they might fall. But under DSBR, the National Grid has obtained contracts with businesses across the UK to reduce pressure on the grid by 319MW during times of extreme system stress.

It is argued that while this is necessary to guarantee security of supply, DSBR represents another variable for large energy users to contend with, particularly given that Triads are often just a few megawatts apart.

Businesses can estimate how much they could save by responding to Triad warnings using npower's free Triad savings calculator tool.

Use the link below.

Brian Tinham

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